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Net Zero Navigator 2025
Expert decarbonisation predictions for the year ahead.
2025 Decarbonisation Predictions
Contributors
Josh Buckland
Energy and Environment Policy Specialist
Elliott Bermudez-Galton
Head of Energy Advisory & Risk Management
Mike Sewell
Plan Zero Director
Kev Sankar
Strategic Director, Mitie Projects
James Spires
Head of Net Zero Estates and Infrastructure
Catherine Wheatley
Head of Data and Technology, Energy
Foreword
The next 12 months will be a litmus test of global resolve to decarbonise.
Josh Buckland Energy and Environment Policy Specialist
2025 will be a pivotal year for net zero. Global geopolitical uncertainty is sure to shape sustainability in the year ahead. The forthcoming Trump administration’s expected retreat from green initiatives and the new EU commission’s narrower focus on climate policy may weaken the global net zero agenda. Meanwhile, economic stagnation, persistent inflation and supply chain disruptions risk delaying net zero projects and increasing transition costs.
COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, might have fallen short of delivering the consensus many hoped for, although its financial commitments were a step forwards. But COP30 in Belem, Brazil, will be the moment of truth: nations will have to present credible, well-funded plans to meet the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement. So, the next 12 months will be a litmus test of global resolve to decarbonise.
Renewable energy has gained ground
Transition to renewables has reached a critical point. Organisations and governments are recognising the security and cost advantages of renewable energy. Despite this shift, there’s been a modest resurgence in fossil fuel reliance as some organisations hedge against grid inefficiencies and renewable project delays.
One of this year’s Net Zero Navigator predictions highlights that, with grid infrastructure struggling to keep pace with demand, nuclear energy is emerging as a potential key player in the net zero race. Tech companies, faced with rising energy needs from digitisation and AI, are increasingly looking to nuclear solutions. This multi-technology approach is becoming essential as organisations balance immediate energy requirements with long-term sustainability goals.
“Nuclear energy is emerging as a critical player in the net zero race.”
Net zero is a Government priority
The UK Government has consistently stressed the link between net zero investment and economic opportunity, framing decarbonisation as a catalyst for reindustrialisation, job creation and growth. Steps taken include lifting the onshore wind ban, reforming grid processes and accelerating renewable project connections.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s commitment to achieving 95% clean power by 2030 signals a clear direction, but now Government needs to deliver. Labour’s parliamentary majority offers political stability, creating opportunities for organisations to leverage this momentum and align their strategies with Government plans.
Aligning net zero ambition with investment will be key
As noted in another of this year’s predictions, organisations that have implemented initial decarbonisation measures are now grappling with tougher questions: where to invest next, and how to justify those investments. Given the economic climate, securing funding for long-term transformation is increasingly difficult.
To build stronger business cases, organisations must highlight the broader value of decarbonisation. Rather than framing initiatives purely around emissions reduction, the focus should shift to other benefits, such as enhancing asset value or technology innovation. The advice offered is worth following: flexible, phased investment strategies that integrate decarbonisation with wider business objectives are key to maintaining momentum.
And as carbon reporting becomes more sophisticated, organisations will gain clearer insights into their climate impact – and the ROI of net zero projects. This transparency is essential for boards and shareholders, and also for driving accountability and innovation.
Climate awareness must turn into action
Adapting to long-term challenges, such as extreme weather events, is often seen as secondary to more immediate concerns. Many organisations simply aren’t yet ready to fully confront the reality of events like flooding.
This approach is unsustainable. Moving from climate mitigation to adaptation is critical. Organisations must prepare for the inevitable impacts of flooding, heatwaves and other disruptions. Again, the advice offered is worth following: deploying capital to build resilience will not only future-proof operations, but also create sustainable, long-term value.
This is your opportunity to forge ahead
The insights and advice in this year’s Net Zero Navigator will help you navigate uncertainty and take steps towards a sustainable future. It’s not just about maintaining progress – it’s about transforming ambition into impact. Use the information in this report to get a head start.
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“Moving from climate mitigation to adaptation is critical.”
1. Energy
Be a leader: Future-facing organisations will move towards 24/7 carbon-free energy.
Elliott Bermudez-Galton Head of Energy Advisory & Risk Management
Following the introduction of flexible energy in the 1980s and PPAs in the 2000s, the energy industry’s third major revolution is 24/7 carbon-free energy produced from resources that don’t create carbon emissions. And future-facing organisations like Google, Microsoft, Vodafone UK and AstraZeneca are leading the way with high-profile carbon-free commitments.
‘Green’ energy might not be that green
Did you know the energy organisations use from ‘renewable’ sources is only truly green 30 – 60% of the time? That’s because renewable energy certificates aren’t timestamped, so there’s no way of knowing when the renewable energy is produced. If the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing, your organisation could still be consuming brown energy. Increased scrutiny has sparked a movement towards buying and using energy straight from source, so there’s no doubt about its origins. This is 24/7 carbon-free energy.
“Most organisations with renewable energy certifications are only truly green 30-60% of the time.”
Carbon-free means greater control
Being reliant on the grid makes your organisation vulnerable to market fluctuations, which are less predictable and more extreme than ever before. 24/7 carbon-free energy means every kilowatt-hour of electricity consumption is from sources that do not emit CO2 or other greenhouse gasses. It goes beyond using renewable energy sources, emphasising the need for consistent energy production around the clock.
Moving towards a 24/7 carbon-free approach will provide energy independence and more control. This enables better prediction of costs and reduced emissions.
Don’t let good be the enemy of perfect
Gone are the days of empty green promises: it’s time to innovate and deliver. All organisations should be pursuing 24/7 carbon-free energy – those who leave change until the last minute will be left behind.
But remember: we’re all on a journey, and perfection is the enemy of progress. At this point, anything you can do to close the gap is a step in the right direction.
Start by understanding your energy usage
Matching your organisation’s energy usage with the baseload requires strategic collaboration with your energy supplier. It means you can also optimise costs and drive greater energy efficiency, balancing a carbon-free approach with affordability and security of supply. To do so, follow this three-step process, with the help of an expert partner if required:
- Start by understanding your energy usage and apply AI to gain deeper insights. First conduct an audit to determine how much energy your organisation uses and when, then work to reduce your consumption. AI is a useful way to forecast future energy use. This can be mapped against typical generation from the grid, while factoring in the weather and energy-generation patterns that might impact supply and demand. So don’t overlook AI’s role in developing your energy strategy.
- Consider renewable energy options to generate your own supply, such as solar or wind power. If your organisation uses gas, electrification is an option. A combined heat and power (CHP) system fuelled by biomethane or hydrogen offers an alternative.
- For 24/7 carbon free energy, you’ll also need sufficient battery storage for excess energy. This can be used when renewable energy sources aren’t generating, for example due to lack of sunlight.
Ultimately, the most impactful action could be adapting operations to use less energy – the cheapest kilowatt hour is the one you don’t use.
“The cheapest kilowatt hour is the one you don’t use.”
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Key takeaway
To reduce carbon emissions, scrutinise your energy supply and use. Make a plan to reduce consumption, while introducing alternative, carbon-free energy options and battery storage.
2024 prediction in review
AI will be critical to reducing energy consumption – but some caution is needed.
The AI explosion over the past 12 months has generated ever-growing demand for energy capacity to power data centres.
Last year I predicted that powering the technology of tomorrow affordably would be tough without the right energy strategy. Indeed, energy prices have remained the number one challenge for organisations. Our latest research shows 57% of senior managers name rising energy costs as their biggest energy-related concern over the next five years.*
Those refining their energy strategy must consider how to embrace AI while balancing energy cost, security and sustainability.
#1
The availability and reliability of renewable energy sources is the top challenge cited by senior managers in reducing their organisation’s reliance on fossil fuels*
The facts
Global electricity demand has almost doubled from 2000 to 2023
40% of the world’s electricity came from carbon-free sources in 2023
Global renewable capacity is expected to grow 2.7x by 2030
2. Strategy
Avoid the ‘net zero Catch-22’: Savvy sustainability stakeholders will approach decarbonisation holistically.
Mike Sewell Plan Zero Director
When short-termism rules the boardroom, it’s tempting to focus on decarbonisation measures offering quick payback, versus more costly yet transformative changes. But the trick to getting larger investments across the line is positioning both as part of an overarching strategy.
Short-term thinking is hindering net zero progress
Our latest research shows most senior managers (99%) claim their organisation has already implemented quick wins to accelerate decarbonisation – in fact, 41% believe they’ve exhausted options. Thus, further progress means focusing on time-consuming, costly, or otherwise challenging measures.
But 78% report difficulty securing capital expenditure to fund transformation projects, such as air heating decarbonisation. This requires changing not only the heat source to a solution like ground, air or water source, but also changing distribution of the heat and the thermal performance of the entire building. Some such technologies are expensive and unwillingness to invest is exacerbated by reduced fiscal incentives (such as subsidies, grants or tax relief) and the impact of geopolitical instability.
“41% of senior managers believe they’ve exhausted ‘quick win’ options.”
Organisations find themselves in a ‘net zero Catch-22’
Sustainability stakeholders face a paradox: smaller tactical improvements are easier to sign off and deliver in isolation, but failing to position them as part of a holistic strategy can undermine the business case for larger investments. Though initially impressive, cost-saving measures like increased energy efficiency soon become the norm. Later, when presenting a separate business case for more significant investment, it’s less convincing to mitigate costs with these forgotten savings.
“Failing to position smaller tactical improvements as part of a holistic strategy can undermine the business case for larger investments.”
Sustainability stakeholders must take an integrated, long-term view
Present decarbonisation measures as part of a holistic strategy, rather than a series of one-off projects. This enables you to demonstrate – and later evidence – how a combination of initiatives delivers impact greater than the sum of its parts.
Planning for transformation now means you can introduce changes as soon as costs come down. It takes four to five years for new technologies to become affordable. So, take a phased approach – even if that means adding five years to the likes of your heat decarbonisation or EV transport plan.
Take stakeholders on the journey with you. Paint a clear vision for transformation that incorporates quick wins and larger investments. Make phased, progressive commitments. Demonstrate how immediate changes mitigate the longer payback period of bigger investments.
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Key takeaway
Positioning low- and high-investment measures as part of an integrated strategy lets you demonstrate the impact of combined initiatives, encouraging greater buy-in.
2024 prediction in review
Organisations that reduce emissions will increase their bottom line.
My words from last year still ring true today: organisations often fail to invest in energy efficiency due to a lack of understanding of the benefits, rather than a lack of capital. We found that 78% of senior managers say securing capital expenditure to fund transformation projects is a barrier to achieving net zero.*
There’s still a need for education – sustainability stakeholders must help your wider organisation understand cost benefits of ESG investment. Position transformational spending as an opportunity rather than a risk, improving your organisation’s bottom line through greater efficiency and self-sufficiency.
63% of senior managers believe their organisation is being very ambitious in addressing climate change*
The facts
59% of UK businesses cited high costs as a moderate or significant barrier to reaching net zero
The UK’s energy supply could require more than £900bn in capital expenditure to achieve net zero by 2050
Nearly one-third of sustainability experts in large businesses are struggling to make the internal business case for net zero
3. Legislation
Don’t wait: Smart organisations will get ahead of Government plans by making tactical improvements now.
Kev Sankar Strategic Director, Mitie Projects
After a year of political uncertainty, Labour’s election has reignited progress towards a low-carbon future. In this transition period, big-picture progress can seem slow but organisations have the power to make improvements.
The future looks green
With Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledging an 81% cut to UK emissions by 2035, it appears the Labour government has big ambitions and is moving in the right direction.
Recent initiatives include launching a publicly-owned National Grid Energy System Operator (NESO) and delivering 17 clean energy projects by expanding solar and offshore wind farms. These upgrades will make the UK more self-sufficient, strengthening energy security and reducing our reliance on overseas power, while stabilising prices to combat inflation and price hikes. This may well address the fact British businesses paid 27.7 pence per kilowatt hour (KWh) for electricity in 2023 compared to 16.4 pence in France and 17.5 pence in Germany.
But change will take time.
Infrastructure delays are slowing progress
Though Labour pledged to reinstate the 2030 electric vehicle deadline, by which all new vans and cars sold in Great Britain must be zero emission, they haven’t confirmed the change. Charge Point Operators (CPOs) have therefore been slow to roll out infrastructure, creating investment uncertainty and slowing EV adoption.
Meanwhile, any organisation needing a new grid connection – whether for EV charging, a new location, or an expansion – is being thwarted by logistical challenges. These include legal infrastructure considerations like getting planning approvals or crossing land owned by third parties. Persistent materials shortages also make it harder to get projects off the ground.
So, right now it’s often a struggle to access any energy – let alone green energy. The Government, Ofgem and grid operators are working to accelerate progress through their Connections Action Plan, but change won’t happen overnight.
Green skills problem must be solved
Lack of green skills also poses a problem. While the Apprenticeship Levy encourages organisations to invest in training, in practice it doesn’t enable local green upskilling or growing the necessary workforce. Firstly, because it only covers training for apprentices, rather than existing staff. Plus, the Levy doesn’t cover the cost of many relevant courses. It remains to be seen how Government will address these issues.
“Keep in mind these issues are market-wide and don’t be discouraged.”
Make tactical improvements now
Keep in mind the issues I’ve mentioned are market-wide and don’t be discouraged. Focus on what you can control and move forward with tactical improvements to your energy system. For example, create efficiencies by maintaining and upgrading your high-voltage networks. Or explore on-site generation and battery storage to reduce exposure to the grid. You could even look at creating returns from existing assets – like generating income by opening EV chargers to the public.
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Key takeaway
Now’s the time to invest in and maintain your energy infrastructure and find opportunities to monetise existing assets.
2024 prediction in review
Despite issues with EV infrastructure, proceeding with confidence will be essential to meet transition deadlines.
Last year, our research showed senior managers were concerned about the shortage of public and accessible EV charging.
According to our latest research, these worries haven’t abated. 36% of senior managers say infrastructure upgrades, such as implementing EV charging facilities, are one of their biggest energy concerns, second only to rising energy costs.*
Uncertainty around EVs might not be going away – but the road to net zero must include carbon-free transport.
37% of senior managers say they don’t have clarity regarding the net zero regulations that will apply to their organisation in the next five years*
The facts
Since 2008 a medium-sized business’s fuel bill has increased by 230% in the UK compared to a 150% increase across the EU and UK combined
The UK’s energy import bill more than doubled between 2021 and 2022, surging to £117bn
There are currently £200bn+ worth of projects sitting in the grid connections queue – and around 40% of them face a wait of at least a year
4. Estates and infrastructure
Take precautions: Wise organisations will use the latest technology to safeguard against extreme climate events.
James Spires Head of Net Zero Estates and Infrastructure
The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events has impacted many organisations’ operations, resources, risk management, reputation and financials. And it’s only going to get worse – with extreme rainfall predicted by the Met Office to be four times as frequent by 2080 and parts of the UK potentially experiencing 40°C days every 3-4 years.
Climate resilience for the built environment should be a priority
The onus will be on organisations to prove how they’re preparing for extreme weather events – or they’ll face regulatory and financial consequences.
On top of increasingly burdensome climate regulations, insurers are expected to start setting premiums based on organisations’ readiness for climate change. Facilities managers will therefore play a critical role in building and evidencing a robust climate strategy.
“Facilities managers will play a critical role in building and evidencing a robust climate strategy.”
Predict and prepare for extreme weather events
Intelligence-led predictive maintenance has always been the holy grail for reducing costs. Installing sensors and feeding the data into predictive AI models can detect small changes that signal potential failure, pre-empting maintenance and improving assets’ uptime.
Climate resilience relies on such preventative action. Don’t wait until the worst happens: test your climate risk assessments and continuity disaster plans. This includes your data and technology strategy, supply chain resilience, employee training and emergency protocol. Could your tech-dependent organisation cope with a power outage? If not, put measures in place to make sure it can.
“Climate resilience relies on preventative action.”
Invest in physical infrastructure to withstand extreme weather
Make investments in physical infrastructure and natural defences to protect buildings against extreme weather. This includes everything from addressing colleague discomfort and equipment failures due to hot or cold offices, to water and structural damage, power outages, access issues and other hazards. Solutions include better insulation, sustainable drainage systems including green roofs, permeable paving, rain gardens and detention ponds, climate resilient ventilation and air conditioning, and choosing materials that can withstand fluctuating temperatures.
You may also consider thermal energy storage (TES), which enables buildings to store energy – such as that generated from renewable sources, or cheaper electricity bought off-peak – for later use. Examples include solar water walls, where water-filled containers are used instead of concrete or brick, and double-skin facades, which can improve a building’s thermal energy performance. This reduces the energy required for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) during extreme weather.
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Key takeaway
Increase your organisation’s climate resilience by developing your decarbonisation strategy. Data and technology will play a critical role in an effective approach.
2024 prediction in review
By reducing water consumption organisations can tap into a quick win that gives a competitive advantage.
Water conservation is key in tackling climate change and extreme weather like flooding and rising sea levels. Yet it often remains overlooked, even though cleaning and pumping water uses a lot of energy and contributes significantly to UK carbon emissions.
Our latest research shows only 42% of senior managers have implemented water-saving measures, and 31% say they lack comprehensive assessments of the climate risk to their site and operations.*
Water could be the secret weapon to help organisations reach net zero, but work remains to unlock its full potential.
91% of senior managers say their organisation is using technologies such as AI, digital twinning or predictive maintenance to build climate resilience*
The facts
2023 was the UK’s second warmest, seventh wettest and 22nd sunniest year
UK insurers paid out a record £1.4bn during Q2 2024, primarily due to weather-related catastrophes such as fires and flooding
Nearly three in five (56%) businesses reported they’re not concerned about the impact of climate change on their business
5. Carbon reporting
Share the responsibility: Democratising your carbon data will be key to achieving net zero.
Catherine Wheatley Head of Data and Technology, Energy
Amid rising pressures from regulatory frameworks, commercial requirements and stakeholder scrutiny, demand for accurate, transparent carbon reporting is greater than ever. A strong sustainability profile is vital for your organisation’s reputation.
Stumbling blocks still exist
Organisations face many hurdles in delivering reliable carbon reporting.
Data accuracy remains a challenge. Ideally, organisations would have access to real-time, granular carbon data, but many still rely on estimates and averages.
Then there’s transparency: audit-grade carbon reporting will soon be expected to match the rigour of financial reporting.
Addressing scope 3 supply chain emissions is complex, industry-specific, and often outside an organisation’s direct control. Even establishing a basic understanding of supply chain emissions is a substantial first step.
And, as we reported last year, the hidden costs and admin of carbon reporting remain a challenge.
Be patient – your efforts will pay off
Getting all your data in one place might take a lot of work upfront, but it’s absolutely worthwhile. A single dataset will save time in the long run, making it quicker and easier to measure progress, monitor compliance and forecast needs. This time and insight can be used for strategic decision-making, guiding everything from supplier requirements to employee travel policies.
“A single, actionable dataset will save time in the long-run.”
Carbon reporting must move beyond the boardroom
Carbon reporting must become dynamic, decentralised and embedded into everyday operations. To achieve this, you need to drive carbon literacy at every level of your organisation through:
- Meaningful metrics – replace abstract figures with relatable metrics like carbon emissions per employee or units of revenue.
- Carbon budgets – these should guide emissions reduction across departments, with financial value assigned to every kilogram of carbon used.
- Accessible data – give teams access to tailored emissions insights so they can understand their carbon impact.
- Increased ownership – empower senior leaders to make departmental decarbonisation decisions and see their real-time impact.
- Shared accountability – link carbon reduction targets to individual performance reviews and incentives, making sustainability everyone’s responsibility.
“You need to drive carbon literacy at every level of your organisation.”
Start small, but start now
Plan ahead, prioritising your most pressing needs. Measure the impact of each initiative and scale your efforts over time. Starting sooner keeps costs and workloads manageable, paving the way for long-term progress.
You don’t have to do it all on day one. But if you only do the bare minimum, you’ll only achieve the bare minimum. Your organisation needs to have access to granular data in order to make targeted interventions that support your journey to net zero. This can be done through deployment of effective sub-metering and Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) to provide asset-level insight and control. Our recommendation is to focus on developing a clear data acquisition strategy.
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Key takeaway
Reaching net zero requires more than Board-level commitment. Make carbon data accessible, meaningful and actionable to drive real change.
2024 prediction in review
Organisations laying the groundwork for smarter data collection and benchmarking will be better prepared for the energy market of the future.
Dynamic benchmarking has indeed become a key focus for organisations.
Our latest research reveals that confidence in decarbonisation commitments remains high. 96% of senior managers view their organisation’s goals as somewhat or very ambitious. The same percentage believe they meet or exceed industry standards.*
However, the game has changed. Moving beyond ambitious targets, organisations must demonstrate progress and commit to measuring impact to quantify and communicate achievements transparently.
#1
The cost of implementing reporting systems was the top carbon reporting challenge cited by senior managers – followed by regulatory uncertainty and data transparency concerns*
The facts
46% of organisations report receiving requests for carbon data from customers or tender applications
Only 15% of businesses reporting climate data through CDP have a target to reduce indirect Scope 3 emissions
Businesses that verify their emissions by third-party auditors initially demonstrate higher carbon emissions (13.7%) and intensities (9.5%) — but make more reductions in the future
*Source: Mitie-commissioned survey of 100 respondents at senior manager level and above with responsibility for sustainability in companies of 1,000+ employees.
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